Green index correlates with local election voting

Monday 5th July 2021

The political environment never stands still. Alongside the fall out of Brexit and its polarising effect across the UK, another major issue appears to be shaking traditional voter allegiance to the core - the environment and wider green issues.

Both the local elections in May and the recent Chesham and Amersham bi-election provide growing evidence that voters are willing to ditch their historical loyalties for candidates and parties who seem to be addressing their core concerns about the environment.

The results in Bristol provide one of the clearest examples of how the political landscape can quickly change. The Green party went into the elections holding 11 of the seats on Bristol city council and ended with 24, making them the joint biggest party with Labour, who slipped from 37. Green candidates won in Bristol's leafy areas and also took seats in the Labour strongholds of Eastville, Bedminster, Lockleaze and Lawrence Hill.

The More Metrics Green Index comprises 3 sub-indexes looking at animal welfare, environmental issues, and global human rights. Applying these indexes to the Bristol results it appears that, perhaps not surprisingly, it is the more locally relatable issue of the environment which appears to be driving this change. Whilst Bristol scores highly on the index for animal welfare and human rights issues at 103% and 134% of the UK average respectively, it is environmental concerns at 183% which dominates. And whilst the wealthier areas are well represented, the environmental message is resonating across the city with all but 3 of the 34 wards indexing above the UK average.

A similar pattern emerged in the Chesham and Amersham bi-election which saw the Liberal Democrats overturn a huge Conservative majority. Key issues surrounded proposed changes to planning laws which could allow more building in rural areas and the construction of HS2 which will run through the constituency. As in Bristol, the animal welfare and environmental indexed scores were well above the UK average at 161% and 156% respectively.

So political parties and campaigning groups are quickly realising that they can't pay lip service to Green Issues. More Metrics is working with several organisations where the Green Index can help drive policy and communication change. It is helping identify the next Bristol or Amersham or simply to provide increasing quantifiable evidence that the environment and green issues are now front and centre of our national conversation.

Contact us for further details.

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