Indian-variant COVID spread is geographic, not ethnic driven

Friday 21st May 2021

Nigel Bradshaw

Throughout the pandemic, More Metrics has been analysing the COVID-19 data that we have modelled to a local level so we can see infection rate spread in detail.

In light of the concerns about the spread of the so called Indian variant, we have investigated if high incidence is correlated to areas with populations of high concentrations of Indian sub-continent heritage. Surges in particular areas can of course be driven, or even exacerbated by many factors. One such concern is that possible localised breakdown in test-and-trace, as reported by the BBC.

Our analysis began with a repeat of our OAC analysis. OAC's are the geo-demographic classifications used by the Office of National Statistics. Selected results are shown in the graph. OAC's with higher ethnic populations have showed no exceptions movements in the last month.

In contract geographic hot-spots, straight from our localised COVID-19 data, clearly show up Glasgow and surrounds, Bolton and Erewash (between Derby and Nottingham) as areas of higher incidence of the new virus strain.

Our conclusion is that the spread of COVID-19, and specifically the Indian-variant, is not related to any particular ethnic group, but is geographically concentrated. It is the characteristics of the particular local geographies which drive or subdue infection rates.

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