Staycation COVID-19 risks

Tuesday 14th July 2020

Sam Costain

As the UK gradually emerges from Lockdown, More Metrics data can be used to identify potential risks across a range of everyday scenarios. In this article, we explore the potential hazards of the long overdue day trip. It can help to identify if locations travellers are coming from are high risk and so help predict locations of spikes in tourist destinations.

Key finding

• Beauty spots and touring centres have been relatively unscathed by COVID-19,
• though their residents often have a high risk profile,
• so are at risk from visitors which come from the many cities with high infected rates.

This article uses some of the More Metrics COVID-19 risk and infection data sets to look at examples with a serious transfer likelihood.

• Age Risk All Index as an indication of how 'at risk' populations are from infection.
• COVID-19 Engagement Risk Index as a guide to compliance to public health regulations.
• Infection Rate As Is which is an estimate of those who have been infected.

West Wales Resorts:

• Beautiful Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire have a low infected rate of 5.2%, yet a very high age risk of 19 out of 20.
• Cardiff South has an infected rate of 18.8%, with a high engagement risk of 16 out of 20.

Residents of the West Wales resorts have largely avoided COVID-19, despite high risk factors. This change due to visitors from Cardiff who may not be as compliant to health regulations and have had a high level of infection.

Peak District:

• The scenic Derbyshire Dales has a low infected rate of 8.2%, yet the high age risk of 19 out of 20.
• Nearby Manchester and Sheffield have infection rates of nearly 25%.

The higher infected rate in the urban population suggests a potential for infection transfer to the Peak District, which is a concern as residents have a high underlying risk profile.

Southend:

• Southend West has a low infected rate of 10.9%, a fairly high age risk of 16 out of 20, and an engagement risk of 8 from 20.
• West Ham has very a high infected rate of 21.6% and engagement risk of 18 from 20.

Whilst the beaches of Southend could attract the people from West Ham it could lead to an infection transfer risk. This could trigger conflict between the generally vulnerable but compliant residents, and less engaging visitors.

These example show that More Metrics data can be used to identify:

• Local day trip / beauty spots at high risk of infection transfer due to significant differences in their risk age, current infection rate and COVID-19 engagement risk.
• Nearby large centres of population with those travelling from these areas more likely to carry the infection due to high infection rates and are likely to pass it on due to low COVID-19 engagement risk.

More Info

Source: More Metrics COVID-19 data at Parliamentary Constituency level. Accessed at 16 June 2020.

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