Did students spread COVID?

Friday 30th October 2020

Nigel Bradshaw

Using our model of Confirmed Cases per 100,000 at Output Area (~7 postcode) level we looked to see if there was evidence of a geographic spread of COVID-19 cases out from the recent outbreak in communal student locations.

The graph clearly shows that the answer is no. We found no evident that the student outbreak leaked geographically, even within the immediate 200m surroundings. This supports the view that students mixed within their own communities initially, and that lockdowns were effective.

The analysis does not cover whether there was an impact from any students returning home.

Technically our analysis used our Output Area model of Confirmed Cases per 100,000 measuring the distance from each Output Area to their nearest communal student location. Communal student locations were identified though having an Output Area Classification (OAC) of 2a1 Student Communal Living or 2a2 Student Digs. We also excluded Output Areas with OACs 2a3, 2b1 and 2b2 which are mixed student / resident populations.

For further details on Output Area Classifications and how their confirmed case rate varies see our recent article Significant COVID case variation by OAC

Contact us for further details on all our Output Area data.

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